JAKARTA – Ibn Khaldun—whose full name is Abdurrahman bin Muhammad Ibn Khaldun al-Hadrami—wrote his monumental work Muqaddimah (Prolegomena) in 1377.

Muqaddimah serves as an introduction to his major book, Kitab al-‘Ibar, which discusses the history of Arab, Berber, and various other civilizations.

Modern social scientists consider Muqaddimah a groundbreaking work in the fields of sociology, demography, historiography, and theories of civilizational change.

Albert Hourani, a leading historian of the Arab world, noted that Ibn Khaldun succeeded in revealing the “inner laws” that drive societies.

Ibn Khaldun’s ideas were shaped by his keen observations of historical events. He lived during a time of major global shifts: the fall of Byzantium, the rise of the Ottoman Empire, the decline of Muslim Andalusia, and the return of European Christian power to the region.

Old cities lost influence while new centers of civilization emerged.

From these experiences, Ibn Khaldun concluded that civilization is not static. It moves in cycles: it is born, grows, reaches its peak, then declines, and eventually collapses.

His ideas have had wide influence on modern thinkers. Albert Hourani, in A History of the Arab Peoples, uses the concept of ‘ashabiyah (social solidarity) as a key to understanding Arab history.

Arnold Toynbee, in A Study of History, developed a theory of challenge and response that aligns with Ibn Khaldun’s civilizational cycle. Ernest Gellner, in Saints of the Atlas, used Ibn Khaldun’s framework to explain power relations and social structures among the Atlas communities in Morocco. This shows that Ibn Khaldun’s thought is not only relevant to the Islamic world but also foundational to global social theory.

Cycles of Civilization: The Inevitability of Civilizational Turns

What Ibn Khaldun wrote in Muqaddimah reflects the social reality of Arab–Berber societies in North Africa and Andalusia. He found that a civilization’s effective lifespan usually spans about three generations—roughly a hundred years. This pattern repeats across different civilizations.

Ibn Khaldun divided societies into two main types: nomadic (badawah) and settled urban (hadarah) societies. Nomadic communities live in tough, demanding environments. These conditions build strong group solidarity (ashabiyah), courage, and adaptability.

This collective bond allows them to build political and military strength, even enabling them to conquer urban societies.

On the other hand, urban societies that live in comfort tend to experience a decline in social solidarity. City life encourages individualism, leading people to rely on state institutions—police, bureaucracy, and security forces—for order. Economic inequality, luxurious elite lifestyles, corruption, and rising crime weaken social cohesion.

According to Ibn Khaldun, these are the conditions that make cities vulnerable to being overtaken by groups with stronger solidarity. He stressed that ashabiyah is the key to a civilization’s success. When social solidarity is strong, civilization grows. But when luxury, injustice, and corruption spread, solidarity weakens and collapse becomes inevitable.

Ibn Khaldun described four main phases of civilization. The first is the phase of struggle and formation. Civilization is born from groups with strong solidarity, a collective spirit, and a shared commitment to survive and advance. Values of simplicity, courage, and sacrifice form the foundation.

The second phase is the phase of prosperity. Political stability takes shape, the economy expands, knowledge and culture flourish, and infrastructure grows. At this stage, society enjoys the achievements of earlier generations. Social solidarity still exists, but it begins to weaken as life becomes more comfortable.

The third phase is decline. Later generations enjoy the results of earlier struggles without contributing to them. Luxury rises, innovation drops, and solidarity erodes. Internal conflicts, elite rivalries, and social injustices intensify.

The fourth phase is collapse. When the social, economic, and political foundations crumble, civilization can no longer endure. What remains are historical traces, while a new cycle begins with a group that has stronger solidarity.

What About Indonesia?

Nusantara’s history shows that Indonesia has never been a blank space in the world of civilization. Sriwijaya and Majapahit once stood as major powers dominating regional maritime routes, trade, and culture.

But this glory did not last forever. When political unity weakened, centers of power fragmented, and adaptability declined, both civilizations collapsed and were replaced by smaller entities.

Modern Indonesia, founded in 1945, is now approaching its centennial in 2045. From Ibn Khaldun’s perspective, this is a critical phase in the civilizational cycle.

The question is not simply how long Indonesia has existed, but in which phase the nation currently stands:

Is Indonesia still building its civilizational foundation with a strong national vision?

Or is it beginning to lose momentum due to weakening social solidarity and a lack of strategic leadership?

In economic terms, this anxiety can be seen in the discussion of the middle-income trap—a situation where a country with great potential fails to become a developed nation because of stagnant innovation, incomplete industrialization, and unresolved structural inequalities.

Social Solidarity as the Key

Ibn Khaldun argued that a civilization advances when it has strong social solidarity. Indonesia actually has substantial social capital through its culture of gotong royong (mutual cooperation).

In Lamalera, East Nusa Tenggara, for example, traditional whale hunting is carried out collectively—from preparation to distributing the catch—reflecting living social solidarity.

Émile Durkheim reminds us that social solidarity must be accompanied by a shared sense of joy and belonging, which he called collective effervescence. When people do not feel justice, security, or well-being, solidarity becomes fragile.

Ibn Khaldun also warned that corruption and injustice destroy social solidarity. When wealth is concentrated among a small elite while the majority is left behind, ashabiyah weakens. Corrupt and nepotistic elite behavior accelerates civilizational decline.

Corruption in Indonesia remains a serious issue. The stagnant corruption perception index shows that threats to social solidarity have not been fully resolved. If left unaddressed, economic inequality will widen and weaken the nation’s foundations.

Democracy and the Future of Civilization

For a diverse society like Indonesia, democracy is not just one option among many—it is a requirement for civilizational continuity. Democracy provides a shared space for groups with different religions, ethnicities, and social classes to coexist without eliminating one another.

Through equal voting rights, every citizen can express their views and take part in shaping the nation’s direction, even when interests differ. Democracy works as a peaceful channel for conflict, preventing social tensions from turning into violence or division.

Moreover, democracy demands accountability. Power that is monitored, limited, and corrected openly creates greater possibilities for social justice.

Without meaningful democracy, social solidarity can easily be eroded by inequality, corruption, and the dominance of certain groups. For Indonesia—especially its leaders—protecting democracy means caring for the very foundation of civilization.

Civilizational cycles may be inevitable, but collapse is not fate. The question now is:

Will Indonesian democracy truly become a unifying force for civilization, or will it turn into a stage for power struggles that accelerate decline?

—

*) Rektor Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia (UIII)

This article has been previously publiched here:

https://disway.id/read/928834/cycle-of-civilization/45